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中国经济首季超速增长 引发全球股市动荡
英国《金融时报》马利德(Richard McGregor)北京、戴夫•谢罗克(Dave Shellock)伦敦报道
2007年4月20日 星期五
全球市场昨日出现动荡，此前公布的数据显示，中国经济第一季度超速增长，从而增强了市场对中国将再次加息和收紧货币政策的预期。
Global markets wobbled yesterday after figures showed China’s economy went into overdrive in the first quarter, heightening the prospect of further rate rises and monetary tightening.
曾有分析师预计中国经济增速今年将有所放缓，但中国国家统计局(National Bureau of Statistics)公布的数据打乱了他们的预期。数据显示，中国今年第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)增幅为11.1%，高于去年第四季度的10.4%。
Confounding analysts who had expected the economy to slow slightly this year, the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing announced that gross domestic product increased 11.1 per cent in the first quarter compared with 10.4 per cent in the final three months of 2006.
中国经济增速已连续四年超过10%，在此过程中的不同时点，许多经济学家曾做出中国经济将“硬着陆”或“软着陆”的预期。
China has grown by more than 10 per cent for the past four years in succession, leading many economists to predict, at various points along the way, “hard” or “soft landings” for the economy.
渣打银行(Standard Chartered)驻上海的经济学家王志浩(Stephen Green)表示：“中国经济并未着陆——它在中途重新加油，再次高飞。”
“This economy has not landed – it has refuelled in mid-flight and is flying higher again,” said Stephen Green, of Standard Chartered bank in Shanghai.
中国的通货膨胀率同样走高，在3月份达到3.3%，超出了中国央行认为适宜的范围（低于3%）。但由于消费者价格指数(CPI)的上升主要是因为食品价格上涨，核心通胀率仍保持在低水平，因而，市场的担忧不是很强烈。
Inflation was higher, reaching 3.3 per cent in March, a level outside the central bank’s comfort zone of below 3 per cent. But concern was muted as most of the CPI increase resulted from rising food prices, with core inflation remaining low.
在能源密集型行业，钢材产量较上年同期增长26%；氧化铝和铝材产量分别上升了54%和43%。
In energy-intensive industries, rolled steel production was up year-on-year 26 per cent; alumina 54 per cent and aluminium 43 per cent.
此次GDP数据是在中国股市收盘后公布的。中国股市当天下跌近5%，许多分析师认为，这是因为投资者担心新数据将促使政府采取措施抑制经济增长。中国股市的下挫引起了亚太地区其它市场的震荡。
China’s stock market dropped nearly 5 per cent before the release of the GDP figures, a fall attributed by many analysts to concern about measures to rein in growth that might result from the data. The fall saw other markets in the region falter.
欧洲股市开盘走低，但在尾盘收复部分失地。伦敦富时100指数收盘仅下挫0.1%，跌幅最深的是矿业类股。
European equity markets opened under pressure but regained some of their composure by the end of the day. In London, the FTSE 100 index ended just 0.1 per cent lower, with mining stocks suffering most.
在美国股市，标准普尔500指数午盘时分已重拾升势，而道琼斯工业股平均价格指数也开始向周三创下的历史高位缓慢回升。
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 index had edged into positive territory by midday and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had inched back towards Wednesday’s record high.